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Reviewing the potential climate temperature scenarios. Temperatures get colder as you go down the list.
1) A cooling similar to that from 1945 to 1978.
2) A cooling similar to that of 1879 to 1916
3) A Dalton minimum type event
4) A Maunder minimum type event
In brief and not all inclusive statements this is how I see those potentials.
1] Due to the way Solar Cycle 24 is behaving and the state of the PDO and the ENSO I think we will be colder than the 1945 - 1978 cooling.
2] If Cycle 24 pans out to be a cycle of moderate or greater activity then the cooling may be similar to this period. However, I think we will be colder. Over one year ago I said that 2008 would be a year of historic numbers of spotless days. I have also stated that 24 will be very weak. Some predict an amplitude as low as 75. I feel that 40- 45 is more realistic.
3] Although not a certainty, a Dalton type event is more and more becoming the most likely scenario. It is uncanny how close the activity of Cycles 22 and 23 have mimicked Cycles 3 and 4 just prior to the Dalton. I currently feel the activity of Solar Cycle 24 will be much like that of Cycle 5.
4] The only way I see us coming close to a Maunder type event is if 24 comes as a total dud and and then Cycle 25 is almost totally inactive as well. Then we might come close to a Maunder type event but would be slightly warmer unless another influence (major volcanic eruption, etc) occurred during the same period.
1) A cooling similar to that from 1945 to 1978.
2) A cooling similar to that of 1879 to 1916
3) A Dalton minimum type event
4) A Maunder minimum type event
In brief and not all inclusive statements this is how I see those potentials.
1] Due to the way Solar Cycle 24 is behaving and the state of the PDO and the ENSO I think we will be colder than the 1945 - 1978 cooling.
2] If Cycle 24 pans out to be a cycle of moderate or greater activity then the cooling may be similar to this period. However, I think we will be colder. Over one year ago I said that 2008 would be a year of historic numbers of spotless days. I have also stated that 24 will be very weak. Some predict an amplitude as low as 75. I feel that 40- 45 is more realistic.
3] Although not a certainty, a Dalton type event is more and more becoming the most likely scenario. It is uncanny how close the activity of Cycles 22 and 23 have mimicked Cycles 3 and 4 just prior to the Dalton. I currently feel the activity of Solar Cycle 24 will be much like that of Cycle 5.
4] The only way I see us coming close to a Maunder type event is if 24 comes as a total dud and and then Cycle 25 is almost totally inactive as well. Then we might come close to a Maunder type event but would be slightly warmer unless another influence (major volcanic eruption, etc) occurred during the same period.
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