So this is what hes going to do if he gets in

[sjslhill]

Everyone constantly talks about trade...we import more than export...

GeeWizz, we can stop OIL imports, all we need to do is drill. This is Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooo simple.

[sjslhill]

But maybe you anti drill guys are correct...

Maybe I'll start "Free the Colorado River" We will want to tear down the Hoover damn and free the river. I wonder what LA would think of that.

[RCprince]

"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happened, you can bet it was planned that way."
Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1882-1945), 32nd US President

[sjslhill]

You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else

Winston Churchill

[RCprince]

lol

[RCprince]

"In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill ... All these dangers are caused by human intervention and it is only through changed attitudes and behavior that they can be overcome. The real enemy, then, is humanity itself."
Alexander King, Bertrand Schneider - founder and secretary, respectively, of the Club of Rome - The First Global Revolution, pp.104-105

[Bill-SOCAL]

I saw it here amoung other places

http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=15611

Perhaps actually going to the source (oil joke) would help. Here is the official United States Geological Survey study on ANWR:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm

Here is the summary:

Summary

In anticipation of the need for scientific support for policy decisions and in light of the decade-old perspective of a previous assessment, the USGS has completed a reassessment of the petroleum potential of the ANWR 1002 area. This was a comprehensive study by a team of USGS scientists in collaboration on technical issues (but not the assessment) with colleagues in other agencies and universities. The study incorporated all available public data and included new field and analytic work as well as the reevaluation of all previous work.

Using a methodology similar to that used in previous USGS assessments in the ANWR and the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska, this study estimates that the total quantity of technically recoverable oil in the 1002 area is 7.7 BBO (mean value), which is distributed among 10 plays. Most of the oil is estimated to occur in the western, undeformed part of the ANWR 1002 area, which is closest to existing infrastructure. Furthermore, the oil is expected to occur in a number of accumulations rather than a single large accumulation.

So the actual number, as estimated by the USGS, is an average of 7.7 BBO. Call it 8.


Sadly, your source decided to use the high end number (95th percentile = 5% probability) and misrepresented what that means.

Regardless, there is oil there, no question. I can absolutely verify that from personal experience having actually seen the well logs of the first well and having done some of the early work there (from a nice office in Houston).

But that is not the point. The assumption that we can drill our way out of the fix we are in is just wrong. Sorry, but no matter what you may think, we simply do not have enough oil to supply our needs. We are consuming about 8 BBO per year in this country. We currently produce about 1.8 BBO per year (call it 2). So we use 4 times as much as we produce. We would need to produce 4 times as much oil as we currently do just to break even.

BTW - the nice deep water production that is just coming on line, well a few of those are fields I worked on 20 years ago!!!

The US has an estimated 20 to 30 BBO proven reserves right now. For comparison Saudi Arabia has about 265 BBO estimated proven reserves. Around 8 to 9 times what we have.

So again, the concept that we have enough oil to supply all out needs is simply wrong.

The idea that ANWR will have a big impact on prices, is simply wrong. Even the industry estimates that it would drop prices at the pump by no more than 10 cents or so.

To base your opinions on anything other than the actual verified numbers compiled by the USGS, the Mineral Management Service and industry supplied data is just nothing more than wishful thinking.

Oil Shale is going to be a big thing, with around a trillion (that is 1,000 billion) barrels of oil equivalent estimated. But it will be costly and we are not there yet price wise. But long term, it is there and once we are desperate enough for it to pay the costs, then we will go after it. A trillion barrels will supply us for 125 years at current consumption. But it will be very expensive and I think it will be a last resort due to so many concerns about how to produce it and how to refine it.

Sources:

Consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_a.htm

Production:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm

Reserves:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

Green River Oil Shale:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo05/conf/dammer/dammer.ppt

[Darin Jordan]

Thanks Bill... that's the kind of verifiable information I like to read...

Now excuse me while I go try to figure out exactly what you just said!

[RCprince]

"It's been demonstrated that well within two minutes of watching television, most people enter a hypnotic alpha state bordering on theta. Viewers in this state are no longer able to critically evaluate, discern, or pass judgement from their own moral database on the material being viewed. The information just flows, unimpeded, into their subconscious year in and year out."
Jeff Rense, talk-radio host

[Dr. Jet]

"It's been demonstrated that well within two minutes of watching television, most people enter a hypnotic alpha state bordering on theta. Viewers in this state are no longer able to critically evaluate, discern, or pass judgement from their own moral database on the material being viewed. The information just flows, unimpeded, into their subconscious year in and year out."
Jeff Rense, talk-radio host

Jeeze, I haven't watched television in over two decades. I've never seen an episode of Cheers, Seinfeld, Everyone Loves Raymond, or whatever. I don't know who shot JR. I've never seen Miami Vice. I think the last thing I watched was Twilight Zone and Star Trek and that was in the '70s.

Come to think of it, Twighlight Zone and Star Trek make more sense than most of what is on TV now.

Maybe that is why I'm such a Right-Wing Extremist.

[sjslhill]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080731/ap_on_re_us/california_budget

Democratic and Republican lawmakers remain divided over how to close a $15.2 billion deficit, with Democrats favoring $8.2 billion in new taxes on corporations and the state's wealthiest residents. Republicans want a spending cap and oppose tax increases.

Tax them into moving, on second thought, don't, we don't want them here.

[sjslhill]

California is the last state with a fiscal year that begins July 1 that still does not have a budget. It is facing a $15.2 billion deficit, dwarfing that of all other states. The next highest at the start of the fiscal year was New York's, at $5.2 billion.

Okay BillSoCal, what's your plan dude?

[Bill-SOCAL]

Nice change of subject there Steve. I assume you are reading the sources I cited so you can form a more educated opinion. Good deal.

The California budget situation is an every year thing here. One issue is that nearly 90% of our budget is locked by law with automatic increases, etc. The amount of discretionary flexibility that they have is very little. Thanks to Proposition 13 and others like it the cash flow also varies wildly. SO every year they have to wrestle with what to do.

We recalled Gray Davis, got Arnold, and are no better off. This is due to the built in budget items that nobody actually controls. Stupid situation. Sadly much of it is due to our unique ability to govern by referendum. So we end up with things that make no sense, but it is what people want. Sad truth is that sometimes the people don't fully grasp what they are voting for.

They are talking about increases in income tax for individuals making over $200K per year. Most of us here make well less than that, yet we are manipulated into thinking that "they" want to raise "our" taxes.

So it goes in the Golden State. But I am curious how in your mind the budget situation in my state reflects either on my opinions or on anything that we have been discussing?

[sjslhill]

I think your solutions reflect the same situation that your in......

Don't drill
Don't build coal plants to make electricty
Pay high taxes but
Spend, spend, spend, spend, spend

It's $100,000 for individuals and $200,000 per family the last time I looked.

What the hell is $100K in Ca anyway, the poverty level?

I don't have the time to look into your worry about getting some oil on a polar bear or something. If there is not any oil there, why are they talking about it?


Your right, we have no oil and need to stop buying it tomorrow.....

Sod house and horses for all Americans......maybe two horses in every stall or something, yes, that's it.

Have fun when Obama and CA taxes the hell out of your ass. LOL

[sjslhill]

Oh I forgot one thing....

Stop using gasoline in your hobby and stop using those batteries that are made in Asia.